Affordable Housing

Appendix C

Summary of Analysis

Having considered the key stages of the Basic Needs Assessment Model, we can summarise the total need for affordable homes and the likely supply of properties.  Figure 3E.1 summarises the total need for affordable homes in terms of Backlog Need and Newly Arising Need.

Stage		Need for Affordable Housing	Number of Households
	1	Backlog need existing households	20,499
	2	minus Cases where in-situ solution most appropriate	8,846
		minus Moves within the existing housing stock	3,476
		minus Out-migrants	1,128
	3	times proportion unable to afford to rent or buy in market	7,050 x 59.20%
	4	plus Backlog of non-households	55
	5	equals Total Backlog Need (1 - 2) x 3 + 4	4,229
	6	times Quota to progressively reduce backlog	20%
	7	equals Annual need to reduce backlog 5 x 6	846
	8	New household formation (gross)	497 x 37.70% =188
	9	times Proportion unable to buy or rent in market
	10	plus Ex-institutional population moving into community	200 x 70.30% =141
	11	plus Existing households falling into priority need	45
	12	plus In-migrant households unable to afford market housing	3,794 x 27.10% = 1,029
	13	equals Newly Arising Need (8 x 9) + 10 + 11 + 12	1,043
Total Need for Affordable Housing			2,249

Figure 3E.1: Total Need for Affordable Housing.

On the basis of the Basic Needs Assessment Model, the likely supply of housing is detailed below in Figure 3E.2.

Stage	Supply of Affordable Housing	Number of Households
14	Supply of social relets	2,344
15	minus Increased vacancies and units taken out of management	422
16	plus Committed units of new affordable supply	-
17	equals Total Affordable Supply 14 15 + 16	1,922

Figure 3E.2: Total Supply of Affordable Housing

While the supply will satisfy a proportion of the overall need, the model shows that there is a shortfall of 327 affordable homes per year, as noted in figure 3E.3.

Summary of Basic Model	Number of Households
Backlog of existing need Annual need to reduce backlog	846
plus newly arising need	1,403
minus Supply of affordable hosing	1,922
equals Net Shortfall (Surplus) affordable units per year	327

Figure 3E.3: Net Shortfall of Affordable Housing

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