Housing land supply

As the population increases we need more housing. To manage this we need to monitor the amount of land available to build housing and the numbers that we expect to be built (housing requirement).

To work out the amount of land available to build housing we use a variety of sources. These are:

• The 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA).
• Sites identified in the Adopted Area Action Plans.
• The Council’s database of sites with planning permission.
• Sites where development interest has been shown through the pre-application process.

The Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) provided the base for the assessment of the deliverability of sites. It was carried out in 2009 by independent consultants who involved a Panel consisting of the House Builders Federation, developers, agents, and architects experienced in the local market to assess deliverability. This assessment has now been rolled forward to December 2011 using the latest intelligence on the availability and expected delivery timescale of housing sites.

It is important to note that the deliverability assessment has been made in the context of the recession and the continued economic downturn. It reflects current market circumstances and the lack of mortgage finance. The projected delivery timescale for these sites is shown in the housing trajectory document below.

It should be noted that this is a very different picture than if the deliverability was based on normal market circumstances. Based on normal market circumstances, such as were experienced when the RSS and the Core Strategy targets were being developed, there would not be the market constraint which prevented 'shovel ready' sites from being developed.

There is an obvious need for additional homes but few first time buyers have the necessary £40,000 deposit currently required for a mortgage to enable them to meet their need. Without this constraint we would expect to be able to deliver 8,264 dwellings over the next five years (2012 to 2017). As it is, with the constraint of mortgage availability we could expect a lower figure of 4,614 to be delivered 2012-2017.

Five year housing land supply

The emerging guidance of the Draft National Planning Policy Framework states that local planning authorities should:

• Identify and maintain a rolling supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements. The supply should include an additional allowance of at least 20 per cent to ensure choice and competition in the market for land.

Taking into account the above considerations, Plymouth’s five year housing land supply is set out below:

Housing supply 2012 to 2017

• Under normal market conditions: 8,264
• Under current market conditions: 4,614

Housing target 2012 to 2017

• Under normal market conditions: 5,450
• Under current market conditions: 3,250

Surplus/shortfall from previous years

• Under normal market conditions: 955 shortfall
• Under current market conditions: 545 surplus

Total housing requirement 2012 to 2017

• Under normal market conditions: 6,405
• Under current market conditions: 2,705

Housing requirement 2012 to 2017 plus 20 per cent

• Under normal market conditions: 7,686
• Under current market conditions: 3,246

This analysis shows that if we assess when sites might be delivered using normal market circumstances, or if we incorporate the realism of the recession and its continued impact on the housing market, we still exceed our targets and the requirement of a 20 per cent surplus that ensures choice and competition in the market for land.

The Draft National Planning Policy Framework also requires local authorities to identify a supply of specific developable sites or broad locations for growth, for years 6 to 10 and, where possible, for years 11 to 15. The document below shows where we expect most housing development to take place in the city.

This page of the annual monitoring report was last updated December 2011.